Boosting Your Success: How to Increase Your Luck Surface in the Coffee Industry

I recently stumbled upon this idea while watching a video by Codie Sanchez, where she briefly touched on the importance of talking about your work while consistently putting in the hard work. The theory is simple, and I’ve also mentioned it before in "Unlocking Your Niche: How to Stand Out in Any Industry Using Simple Math". This article, however, will focus on the how: purposefully increasing the surface area of luck in the coffee industry.

First, let’s break down the model that’s been used by many thinkers in the entrepreneurial space. The essence of the idea is this: when you’re passionate about your work and actively improving your craft, the way you communicate what you’re doing to the world significantly increases your chances of being “lucky” or encountering success. Why? Because while you're working hard in silence, people aren’t aware of your efforts unless you tell them.

Statistically, a large percentage of entrepreneurs are introverts, which can hinder their ability to openly communicate or market their work. On the other hand, a large proportion of successful entrepreneurs are not just hard workers but excellent communicators - people who constantly talk about what they are doing, sharing their journey with their audience, customers, and the wider community. This is a critical component to increasing your “luck surface area.”

Targeting the Coffee Industry: Roasting and Vending

Now, let’s focus on coffee roasting and vending as two of the most common areas of the coffee industry that are relevant to most readers here.

Roasting: What Makes It Unique?

As a coffee roaster, your core business revolves around sourcing quality green coffee beans, applying your expertise in roasting them, and finally marketing the roasted beans to cafés or individual consumers. But in today’s highly competitive market, where roasting equipment can range from $1000+ bench-top roasters (such as Kaffelogic) to $250,000+ commercial roaster equipment (such as Probat or Loring), your competitive advantage as a small or medium-sized roaster must go beyond simply owning equipment.

What sets you apart?

• It could be the quality of your equipment, allowing you finer control over the roasting process, ensuring consistency and precision in every batch.
• It could also be a celebrity head roaster or a barista world champion affiliated with your brand, adding a layer of credibility and allure to your product.
• Perhaps it’s a unique intellectual property (IP) around your roasting method or the brand value your roastery has cultivated over the years.

But, what if you’re a bootstrapping solopreneur? You’re working on a tight budget, with no celebrity endorsements and basic equipment. Here’s where the luck surface area theory comes into play. One of the most powerful tools you have, especially in a cash-constrained business, is your ability to communicate.

How Talking About Your Roastery Can Increase Your Luck

If you’re a roaster without the deep pockets to invest in state-of-the-art equipment or celebrity backing, one of the most critical strategies to increase your luck is to consistently share your story. Whether you’re posting on social media, attending local coffee events, or simply networking with nearby cafés, talking about what you’re doing can significantly increase your chances of being noticed by potential customers - cafés, restaurants, or even individual shoppers.

Here’s why:

• Visibility: The more you talk about your craft, the more people notice. Don’t assume people will find you; you have to actively put yourself out there.
• Education: Many consumers or café owners might not know about the intricacies of your roasting process, but by sharing that knowledge, you establish yourself as an expert.
• Engagement: People love engaging with passionate entrepreneurs. When you share your journey - your challenges, successes, and what makes your coffee unique - you foster customer loyalty.

So, instead of seeing your small-scale setup as a disadvantage, start leveraging communication as a core tool. In fact, many large companies started with a humble beginning but excelled in telling their stories, building strong communities around their brand.

Coffee Vending: Bringing Your Roasted Beans to Market

Now, let’s consider the vending side of the coffee industry. Vending can take many forms - from setting up your own café to selling beans to other coffee shops, or even creating a direct-to-consumer subscription service.

How can you increase your luck surface here?

• Establish your niche: Are you catering to high-end specialty coffee drinkers, or are you focused on providing consistent, everyday coffee for local cafés? Your niche can guide your messaging.
• Customer engagement: Communicating directly with your customers - whether through social media, email newsletters, or in-person at events - helps you build relationships. Engaged customers are more likely to recommend your coffee and come back for more.
• Partnerships: Luck often strikes in the form of unexpected partnerships. Maybe you’ll collaborate with a local bakery or restaurant, or land a wholesale deal with a nearby office. The more you network and talk about your offerings, the more likely these opportunities will arise.

Luck Favours the Vocal (and the Persistent)

To summarize, working hard is essential, but talking about your work is equally important. In the coffee industry - whether you’re roasting or vending - being vocal about what you’re doing, why it matters, and what makes you different will open doors and opportunities. Every interaction, every conversation, and every social media post is a chance to increase your luck surface.

Remember, success isn’t just about waiting for luck to strike - it’s about making yourself visible so that when opportunity knocks, it knows where to find you. Keep honing your craft, keep talking about it, and you’ll be surprised by how much luck comes your way.

By following this approach, you can effectively amplify your chances of success in the coffee industry, whether you’re a roaster, a vendor, or a combination of both.

Credit: Model Thinkers https://modelthinkers.com/mental-model/surface-area-of-luck